A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
